January 17, 2026
Weekly Gold Technical Analysis Report: Jan 19 – Jan 23, 2026
Author: Market Strategy Team at Gold Trade
Focus: XAU/USD, Dubai Retail Gold Market, Global Macro Trends
The global bullion market enters the third week of January 2026 in a state of high-octane volatility. Following a historic surge that saw spot gold (XAU/USD) dismantle the $4,600 psychological barrier, investors are now bracing for a week that could define the precious metal's trajectory for the remainder of the first quarter.
With unprecedented developments surrounding the U.S. Federal Reserve and a "perfect storm" of geopolitical shifts, Gold Trade provides this comprehensive technical analysis to help traders and investors navigate the upcoming sessions from January 19 to January 23, 2026.
Market Overview: The Jerome Powell Volatility Factor
As we head into the week of January 19, the primary driver for gold remains the sudden and dramatic uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy. The recent news of a federal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell has sent shockwaves through traditional financial markets. This "Fed Independence Crisis" has triggered a significant rotation out of the U.S. Dollar and into safe-haven assets, pushing gold to fresh all-time highs above $4,630/oz.
For Dubai-based investors, this global turbulence has translated into record-breaking local retail prices. As of mid-January, 24K gold in Dubai has breached the Dh550 per gram mark, a level previously thought unreachable just twelve months ago.
Technical Analysis: Breaking Down the XAU/USD Chart
From a technical standpoint, gold is currently in a "blue sky" breakout phase. When an asset trades at all-time highs, traditional resistance levels are replaced by psychological barriers and Fibonacci extensions.
1. Moving Averages and Trend Strength
Gold is currently trading significantly above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) , which sits near $4,420, and its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,330. This massive "gap" indicates a strong bullish extension but also warns of a potential "mean reversion" if the momentum stalls. However, as long as the price holds above the 21-day SMA ($4,495) , the immediate bias remains firmly bullish.
2. Momentum Indicators (RSI & MACD)
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): The 14-day RSI is currently hovering at 69.8. While this is technically "overbought," in a structural bull market, the RSI can stay above 70 for extended periods. We are watching for a "bearish divergence"—where the price makes a new high but the RSI does not—which would signal an exhaustion of the current rally.
- MACD: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence histogram continues to expand in the positive zone. The signal line is trending steeply upward, suggesting that institutional buying pressure remains the dominant force.
3. Fibonacci Extension Targets
Using the swing low of late 2025 to the January 2026 peaks, we have identified the 161.8% Fibonacci extension at $4,712. This is our primary technical target for the week of Jan 19–23. If the market maintains its current velocity, a test of $4,700 before the Friday close is highly probable.
Key Technical Levels to Watch (Jan 19 - Jan 23)
To assist our clients at Gold Trade, we have identified the following critical pivot points for the upcoming trading week:
| Level Type | Price (USD/oz) | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | $4,750 | Ultimate weekly target / Psychological exhaustion zone |
| Resistance 2 | $4,712 | 161.8% Fibonacci Extension level |
| Resistance 1 | $4,655 | Immediate intraday high / Selling pressure zone |
| Pivot Point | $4,605 | The "Gravity Center" for the week |
| Support 1 | $4,560 | Previous resistance turned support (Buy zone) |
| Support 2 | $4,500 | Major psychological floor / 21-day SMA |
| Support 3 | $4,415 | 50-day EMA / Long-term trend lifeline |
The Dubai Context: Local Retail Price Forecast
Dubai’s reputation as the "City of Gold" has never been more relevant. As the global spot price fluctuates, the USD/AED peg ensures that local prices mirror the XAU/USD trend with high precision.
Retail demand in the Dubai Gold Souk and at major outlets remains resilient despite the high prices. Investors are increasingly viewing gold not just as jewelry, but as a critical hedge against global currency devaluation.
Estimated Dubai Gold Rates (24K - 18K)
- 24K Gold: Expected to trade between AED 548 and AED 565 per gram.
- 22K Gold: Projected range of AED 508 to AED 522 per gram.
- 21K Gold: Forecasted between AED 485 and AED 499 per gram.
- 18K Gold: Likely to hold between AED 415 and AED 428 per gram.
Pro Tip for Investors: Many institutional buyers in Dubai are utilizing "buy-on-dips" strategies. A pullback toward the AED 540 level for 24K gold is currently being viewed as a significant entry opportunity for those targeting the $5,000 global price target expected by late 2026.
Fundamental Drivers: What Could Shake the Market?
Beyond the technical charts, three major fundamental factors will dictate price action this week:
1. The "Powell Probe" and the Dollar
If further details emerge regarding the investigation into the Fed Chair, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) could witness a disorderly sell-off. Gold, being priced in dollars, has an inverse relationship with the greenback. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for international buyers, further fueling the rally.
2. U.S. Economic Data (CPI & Retail Sales)
While politics dominates the headlines, the scheduled release of U.S. inflation data and retail sales figures during the middle of the week will provide a reality check. If inflation remains "sticky" (above 2.7%), the Fed may be forced to keep rates higher for longer, which could provide a brief headwind for non-yielding gold.
3. Geopolitical Tensions in Venezuela and the Middle East
Renewed focus on critical mineral supply chains and geopolitical shifts in South America (the "Venezuela Shock") have introduced a fresh layer of risk premium to the gold market. In times of conflict or supply disruption, gold remains the ultimate collateral.
Strategic Trading Advice for the Week Ahead
For active traders at Gold Trade, we recommend a balanced approach for the week of Jan 19–23:
- For Long Positions: Look for entries near the $4,560 – $4,580 support zone. Use a disciplined stop-loss below $4,520 to protect against sudden profit-taking.
- For Short-Term Sellers: The area around $4,685 – $4,710 is a "Take Profit" zone. We do not recommend aggressive shorting (selling) against this strong uptrend, as "fading" a record-breaking rally is high-risk.
- For Jewelry & Physical Gold Buyers: Monitor the Dubai Gold Price daily. Any intraday dip below Dh545 (24K) represents a value zone in the current macro environment.
Conclusion: The Path Toward $5,000
The Weekly Gold Technical Analysis Report for Jan 19 – Jan 23, 2026, concludes that the path of least resistance remains to the upside. While the market is overextended in the short term, the combination of institutional under-ownership and unprecedented political risk in the U.S. suggests that the "Gold Bull" has more room to run.
At Gold Trade, we remain committed to providing the most accurate, real-time insights to the UAE’s investment community. Whether you are trading XAU/USD on a screen or purchasing physical bars in the heart of Dubai, stay informed, stay disciplined, and watch the $4,655 level closely this week.
About Gold Trade, Dubai
Gold Trade is a premier bullion trading firm based in Dubai, UAE. We specialize in physical gold investment, customised retail jewelry, and advanced market analysis. For real-time updates and personalized investment consultations, visit our flagship office or follow our daily market briefings.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this Gold Technical Analysis Report is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading gold and precious metals involves significant risk. Investors should conduct their own research or consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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