December 19, 2025
Silver Technical Analysis Report – 19 Dec 2025: XAG/USD Eyes $70 Amid Historic Supply Squeeze
As the final curtains of 2025 begin to draw, the precious metals market is witnessing a historic performance that has left even the most seasoned analysts in awe. While gold has traditionally been the "safe-haven" darling of Dubai’s savvy investors, silver (XAG/USD) has officially stolen the spotlight this year.
In this exclusive Silver Technical Analysis Report for December 19, 2025, presented by Gold Trade, we break down the charts, the fundamentals, and the local market sentiment that are driving silver toward unprecedented territory.
The Big Picture: Silver’s 130% Year-to-Date Surge
Heading into the third Friday of December 2025, silver is trading near a staggering $65.90 - $66.50 per ounce. This marks a monumental year for the "white metal," which has outperformed gold by nearly double. While gold is coasting at record highs near $4,350, silver’s 130% rally in 2025 has been fueled by a "perfect storm" of industrial demand, monetary easing expectations, and a structural supply deficit that shows no signs of easing.
Key Market Statistics (19 Dec 2025)
- Spot Silver (XAG/USD): ~$65.94
- 24K Gold (Dubai): Dh522.25 per gram
- 2025 Performance: Silver (+130%) vs. Gold (+64%)
- Market Status: 5th consecutive year of global supply deficit
Technical Analysis: Resistance, Support, and Pivot Points
From a technical perspective, silver is currently navigating a high-volatility consolidation phase just below its all-time high of $66.89, reached earlier this week.
1. Resistance Levels: The Road to $70
The current price action suggests a minor "profit-booking" pullback as traders close positions before the weekend. However, the bullish momentum remains intact.
- Immediate Resistance: $66.80 (Recent high)
- Psychological Barrier: $68.50
- Major Target: $70.00 (Analysts expect this to be tested by early Q1 2026)
2. Support Zones: Where to Buy the Dip?
For investors at Gold Trade, Dubai, looking to enter the market, the following levels provide a safety net:
- Primary Support: $64.72 (Previous resistance-turned-support)
- Secondary Support: $63.30 (Trendline support)
- Hard Floor: $60.00 - $60.80 (Major psychological support)
3. Technical Indicators
- RSI (14): Currently sitting at 65.43. This indicates strong bullish momentum without being excessively "overbought" (above 70).
- Moving Averages: The price is comfortably above the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), confirming a healthy long-term uptrend.
- ADX (Average Directional Index): At 31.2, the ADX suggests the current trend is robust and not just a speculative spike.
Why Silver is Outperforming: The Fundamental Drivers
At Gold Trade, we often remind our clients that silver is a "dual-purpose" asset. It is both a financial hedge and an industrial necessity. In 2025, both sides of this coin are shining.
The "Green" Revolution and AI Boom
The most significant driver of silver prices this year has been the explosion in industrial fabrication.
- Solar Energy: Over 650 GW of solar capacity was added globally in 2025. Silver’s unbeatable conductivity makes it irreplaceable in photovoltaic cells.
- AI and Data Centers: The hardware required to run advanced AI models requires significant amounts of silver-coated connectors and high-end circuitry.
- Electric Vehicles (EVs): As the UAE and the world shift toward electric mobility, silver demand per vehicle has surged by 15% this year alone.
The Massive Supply Deficit
The Silver Institute has confirmed that 2025 will mark the fifth consecutive year of a global silver deficit. Mine production has remained largely flat at ~813 million ounces, as most silver is produced as a by-product of lead, zinc, and copper mining. With inventories in London and New York at decade-lows, the physical squeeze is real.
The Gold-Silver Ratio: A Dubai Perspective
Historically, the Gold-Silver Ratio (the number of silver ounces needed to buy one ounce of gold) averages around 60:1. Earlier this year, the ratio was above 85:1, signaling that silver was deeply undervalued compared to gold.
By December 19, 2025, the ratio has compressed to approximately 65:1. This compression is why silver has been "gold on steroids." For Dubai investors, this suggests that while gold remains a stable anchor, silver offers the higher "alpha" or growth potential in a bullish precious metals cycle.
Investor Note: "Many of our clients at Gold Trade are now diversifying their 24K gold holdings with physical silver bars, anticipating that the ratio could drop toward 50:1 as the supply crunch intensifies."
Local Outlook: Buying Precious Metals in Dubai
In the Dubai market, the retail price for 24K gold is holding steady at Dh522.25. However, the premiums on physical silver have seen a slight uptick due to high demand during the festive season and increased interest from Indian expatriates who view silver as a more accessible investment during high-price cycles.
Dubai Jewellery Group reports consistent footfall, with a notable shift toward silver bullion (1kg and 5kg bars) as a long-term wealth preservation tool.
2026 Forecast: Is the Rally Sustainable?
As we look toward 2026, the macro environment remains favorable for XAG/USD:
- Fed Policy: Markets are pricing in at least two interest rate cuts for 2026, which historically weakens the USD and boosts non-yielding assets like silver.
- Geopolitical Risk: Continued trade tensions and regional uncertainties keep the "safe-haven" bid alive.
- Inflation Hedge: With global debt at record levels, investors are flocking to "hard assets" that cannot be printed.
Final Verdict: While a short-term correction toward the $60 mark is possible (and would be a healthy development), the long-term technical path for silver points toward $75 - $80 by the end of 2026.
How to Trade
- For Long-Term Investors: Continue to accumulate physical silver on dips toward $63.00.
- For Short-Term Traders: Watch the $66.80 resistance level. A confirmed break above this on high volume could signal a fast move to $70.00.
- Risk Management: Always use stop-losses near the $60.00 psychological level to protect capital against sudden market shifts.
Gold Trade remains your premier partner for all precious metal transactions. Whether you are looking to secure physical bullion or need expert market insights, our team is here to help you navigate this historic rally.
Disclaimer: This Silver Technical Analysis Report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading XAU/USD involves significant risk, and it is recommended to consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Gold Trade, Dubai is not liable for any losses incurred based on this report.
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