December 20, 2025
Weekly Silver Technical Analysis Report: 22-26 Dec 2025
By Gold Trade, Dubai – The Authority in Precious Metals
As the global financial markets approach the final trading week of 2025, silver (XAG/USD) has decisively stolen the spotlight from its yellow sibling, gold. While gold has enjoyed a historic run toward $4,300, silver has staged a meteoric ascent, recently shattering all-time highs to trade firmly above the $65.00 per ounce mark.
For the week of December 22-26, 2025, the "White Metal" enters a critical technical junction. With the Christmas holiday promising low liquidity but potentially high volatility, Gold Trade presents this exclusive technical analysis to help our clients navigate the year-end "Silver Squeeze."
2025: The Year of the Silver Renaissance
To understand the current price action, one must look at the unprecedented performance of silver in 2025. Rising over 125% year-to-date, silver has outperformed almost every major asset class, including the S&P 500 and Bitcoin. This rally is not merely speculative; it is the result of a "perfect storm" of structural supply deficits and explosive industrial demand from the green energy and AI sectors.
As we head into the week of December 22, the market sentiment remains strongly bullish, though technical indicators suggest we are approaching a "blow-off top" scenario that requires disciplined risk management.
Technical Analysis: Charting the Path to $70.00
1. The "Cup and Handle" BreakoutOn the daily timeframe, silver recently completed a massive Cup and Handle pattern, a classic bullish continuation signal. The breakout above the $54.50 resistance level in late October acted as a launchpad, propelling the metal into price discovery mode.
Currently, the price is oscillating near $66.20. Technical analysts at Gold Trade Dubai observe that as long as silver maintains a daily close above the $64.70 pivot zone, the path of least resistance remains skewed to the upside.
2. Moving Averages: A Structural Bull RunThe trend strength is confirmed by the alignment of the key moving averages:
- 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA): Currently at $53.60. This level represents the primary structural support.
- 200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA): Trailing significantly lower at $42.00.
The wide "gap" between the spot price and the 200-day SMA indicates a highly overextended market. While the trend is bullish, investors should be prepared for sharp "mean-reversion" corrections that could see prices dip 10-15% without breaking the long-term uptrend.
3. Momentum Indicators: RSI and MACDThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering near 69.8. Historically, a reading above 70 indicates overbought conditions. However, in strong bull markets, the RSI can remain "sticky" in the overbought zone for weeks.
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) histogram shows decreasing bullish momentum bars, suggesting that the recent parabolic move is beginning to consolidate. This is a healthy sign, as it allows the market to build a new base of support before challenging the psychological $70.00 barrier.
Key Trading Levels (Dec 22-26)
Traders in Dubai and international markets should monitor these levels during the holiday-thinned sessions:
Upside Resistance Targets- Immediate Resistance ($66.90): The current all-time high. A break above this level on the 4-hour chart targets $68.30.
- Psychological Target ($70.00): The primary objective for bulls before the 2026 New Year.
- Major Extension ($72.50): Based on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the previous swing high.
- Immediate Support ($65.00): A round-number floor that has seen significant buying interest in the last 48 hours.
- Daily Pivot ($64.72): A breach below this level would signal a short-term correction toward the $61.00 handle.
- Structural Support ($60.80): The December low. This is the ultimate "buy the dip" zone for long-term holders.
| Level Type | Price (USD) | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 2 | $70.00 | Major Psychological Milestone |
| Resistance 1 | $66.90 | All-Time High Barrier |
| Current Spot | $66.20 | Market Pivot |
| Support 1 | $65.00 | Near-term Liquidity Zone |
| Support 2 | $60.80 | Major Structural Floor |
Fundamental Drivers: Why Silver is Outperforming
While technicals provide the "when," fundamentals provide the "why." At Gold Trade, we have identified three core drivers keeping silver prices elevated:
- The 800-Million-Ounce Deficit: For five consecutive years, the silver market has been in a structural deficit. Global inventories on the COMEX and LME are at 20-year lows, making the physical market extremely sensitive to small buy orders.
- Solar and AI Infrastructure: Silver’s role as the most conductive element on earth makes it irreplaceable in solar photovoltaic cells and AI data center hardware. In 2025, industrial demand accounted for nearly 55% of total consumption.
- Critical Mineral Status: The U.S. and E.U. governments recently designated silver as a "critical mineral," leading to increased strategic stockpiling by industrial giants and defense contractors.
The Dubai Perspective: AED Price Outlook
In the UAE, the demand for silver bars and coins has surged as investors look for "gold-like" protection at a lower entry price. With the UAE Dirham (AED) pegged to the US Dollar, local prices directly reflect global spot moves.
As of late December 2025, the retail price for 1kg Silver Bars in Dubai is approximately AED 7,950 - 8,100, depending on the refinery. We expect local premiums to remain slightly elevated this week due to high festive demand at the Dubai Gold Souk.
Holiday Trading Schedule & Risk Warning
Investors must exercise caution during the week of December 22-26.
- Dec 24 (Christmas Eve): Markets close early; expect wide spreads.
- Dec 25 (Christmas Day): Global Markets Closed.
- Dec 26 (Boxing Day): Limited liquidity as major hubs in London and Sydney remain closed.
Trader’s Note: Low liquidity often leads to "erratic price spikes." Ensure your stop-loss orders are placed away from the immediate "noise" of the market to avoid being liquidated during a holiday flash move.
Final Verdict for the Week
Our outlook for the week of December 22-26 is Cautiously Bullish. We expect silver to consolidate between $64.50 and $67.00. While a move toward $70.00 is probable before the year ends, the low-volume environment of Christmas week makes a "wait-and-see" approach prudent for conservative investors.
At Gold Trade, we provide the liquidity and security you need to trade precious metals with confidence. Whether you are looking to hedge against inflation or capitalize on the industrial silver boom, our experts are ready to assist you.
Disclaimer: This Silver Technical Analysis Report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading XAU/USD involves significant risk, and it is recommended to consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Gold Trade, Dubai is not liable for any losses incurred based on this report.
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